Total HMBS payoff speeds in February were a tad slower than those in January; Mandatory Purchases and natural payoffs were approximately 9.2% and 6.5% per annum, respectively. February payoffs totaled about $792 million compared to January’s $814 million. Outstanding HMBS decreased slightly to $58.7 billion.
As mentioned in previous blogs, Ginnie Mae took over RMF’s HMBS portfolio in December 2022. “Ginnie Mae – Reverse Mortgage Funding 42” remains as issuer of record for 4,022 former RMF pools. About $309 million of Issuer 42’s portfolio paid off in February, but Issuer 42 still accounts for $17.7 billion, or about 30% of all outstanding HMBS. Issuer 42 has not issued any tail pools; we estimate Issuer 42 now has well over $1 billion uncertificated position, that is, the excess of their portfolio’s HECM asset balance over the balance of their HMBS liability.
When a HECM loan balance reaches 98% of its MCA, the HMBS issuer is required to buy the loans out of the HMBS pool, and then may assign the loan to HUD if the loan is not in default. This is effectively a prepayment event for the HMBS investor, even though the underlying HECM loan remains outstanding. According to our friends at Recursion, 59% of HMBS payoffs last month were due to Mandatory Purchase, totaling about $463 million, a significant decrease from last month’s $514 million, dropping below the average for calendar year 2023 ($504 million per month) but remaining above 2022’s $315 million per month.
Including the Mandatory Purchases, HMBS paid off at a 15.7% annual rate in February, and 17.2% over the last 12 months. Exclusive of Mandatory Purchases, the rate of HMBS payoffs has fallen significantly over the past 12 months. Natural payoffs (those other than Mandatory Purchases) for the 12 month period ending February 30th were 7.4% per annum, compared to 12.3% for the prior 12 month period.
New View Advisors compiled this data from publicly available Ginnie Mae data as well as private sources.
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